Understanding Correlation and Causation: The Hidden Truths About Vaccines and Side Effects

Medical researcher analyzing vaccine side effect data

It is not uncommon that people decide against a doctor-recommended prescription medication because they read the list of potential side effects. These are symptoms collected and reported by patients in a clinical trial conducted to get through the FDA approval process. How do we know that the medication being tested is what caused the side effects listed? Most commonly it is due to the strength of the correlation: if no study participants reported nausea prior to taking the medication, and then 20% of them reported nausea upon starting to take the medication, we all understand it is reasonable to conclude that the medication probably caused the nausea. Most people want to know what side effects have been correlated with intake of a prescribed medication.

To put it more generally, the more strongly Event 1 is correlated with Event 2, the more confident we are in concluding that Event 1 caused Event 2, assuming there is a plausible connection between the events. It is plausible, obviously, that a medication could cause nausea, so it is reasonable to conclude that the correlation is indicating a causal connection between the medication and the nausea.

In many ways the enterprise of naturopathic medicine is about establishing correlations (between, say, dairy intake and joint pain), then recommending therapies to see if the correlation is causal.

In December of 1976 a nationwide vaccination program underway against swine flu was halted because there had been around 500 reports of a condition called Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) that correlated with receiving the vaccination. GBS is a neurological disorder that often resolves on its own, though it can cause permanent neurological symptoms and even death. About 45 million people had been vaccinated by the time the program was stopped. The correlation was considered strong enough, and the risk high enough, to justify stopping the program.

Fast forward to 2021 and the introduction of the Covid-19 vaccinations. As an increasing number of side effects and even deaths were reported – usually happening within 48 hours of vaccination – a phrase started being floated around by various public health officials, one that would soon be picked up and repeated by many in the trusting public: “Correlation does not mean causation.”

With this phrase, the lived reality that a very large number of people were experiencing, discussing, and reporting – a decline in their health following a Covid-19 vaccination – was marginalized, discredited, and even labeled as dangerous. Groups on social media that formed so people could share their stories were deplatformed under the guise of spreading “misinformation.” The CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), established in 1990 to help detect health problems that might be caused by any vaccination, mysteriously started being discredited by public health officials. And what was VAERS showing about the total number of deaths being reported each year, deaths that correlated with a vaccination?

https://openvaers.com/covid-data

Harvard Pilgram Health Care Institute, which is affiliated with Harvard University, studied the VAERS database, noting that fewer than 1% of adverse events related to vaccination are reported to VAERS. That same report made several recommendations for how to improve vaccination side effect reporting but notes that the CDC did not follow through on any of its recommendations.

It is true that a correlation does not establish causation, but it is also true that causation cannot be established without correlation. Be skeptical of any public health official in the future who dismisses clearly correlated events with the phrase “correlation is not causation,” because correlated events just might be causally related.

A significant number of people are suffering from long-term side effects related to one or more Covid-19 vaccinations. And yes, I know, there are millions who have no side effects at all from the mRNA shots. The safety of any medication is not determined by how many people it doesn’t harm. It is determined by how many it does.

It is a travesty that the CDC has not actively facilitated an accounting of how large that population is, and in fact has worked in exactly the opposite direction. Over the past four years I have researched the mRNA shots extensively and I understand several mechanisms through which they can lead to side effects. Beyond that I have also learned how best to test for and treat symptoms related to either long Covid or injuries induced by the shots. If you or someone you know feels your health has been compromised in any way since receiving one or more mRNA injections, I encourage you to set up a consultation with me by visiting https://olivedrab-lyrebird-181492.hostingersite.com, calling 503-719-4806, or emailing drnigh_info@olivedrab-lyrebird-181492.hostingersite.com. Mention this article and you’ll receive a 10% discount on your consultation.

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